Probably not. And here is 5 reasons why.
I am slightly above average interested in what is happening in Ukraine and in Gaza.
This means that I follow quite a few people who I believe have a balanced attitude to the reality surrounding these events. I follow “Reporting from Ucraine” and I follow Anders Puck Nilsen. The last one is the one I want to talk about today.
Anders says: The attack in Moscow is inconvenient for Putin, and it makes the Russian authorities look bad. Therefore, they try to find a Ukrainian connection, but ironically the false flag theory is also helpful as a way to improve the narrative.
He talks about the Russian terrorist incident and whether it was a false flag operation. To make a long story very short: It wasn’t.
His argument for this was simple.
1: False Flag Operations: A Closer Look
A false flag operation is designed to put those behind it in a favorable light. No matter how you look at the shooting in the Moscow concert hall, it does not give Putin and his regime any advantage.
A few weeks earlier, the US authorities had warned against just such an event. Putin, for his part, appeared on national television and ridiculed these warnings. He thought it was completely in line with the intimidation propaganda the West subjected them (Russia) to. And then it happens. Putin would never do such a thing because it would portray him in a ridiculous light.
2. Media Coverage and Narrative
An indication that it was a botched flag operation is the media coverage afterwards. It was and is formidable. And it is completely in line with false flag operations. But the message in the media coverage was not particularly aimed at being positive for the regime.
Obviously, the media coverage would have substantiated the story of Ukraine’s involvement. But it hasn’t turned out that way. The media coverage is huge, but it is aimed at practical things. The number of rescuers, who were the victims, the grief that arose, flowers at the site, how they are trying to stabilize the building, etc. The newspapers also write about the arrested and their imprisonment, but not much emphasis is placed on this.
3 Putin needs to be "strong"
Putin’s regime depends on appearing strong. Such an event seems the opposite. Therefore, Putin will almost certainly do things that demonstrate the effectiveness of action. The arrest of the perpetrators is one of them. But those who were arrested are unlikely to be the ones behind it. According to the authorities, these were people who did it for money and not ideology.
Moreover, the escape route was very amateurishly laid out and described as a “proof” that was supposed to promote Ukraine’s involvement. It honestly doesn’t seem like a scheme that the relatively skilled planners, ideologically hardened ISIS fighters with Twin towers on their track record, would have done. Probably are these scapegoats put in place to show that the authorities have acted and found the right ones immediately.
Everything to dampen public opinion. The men who were brought into the courtroom were hardly the ones behind the action. Far from there.
4. The connection to Ukraine is missing
Although the Russian authorities have later done their best to connect this to Ukraine, this falls on rocky ground.
Being “on their(perpetrators) way back” to Ukraine is probably the closest one gets to having a link to Ukraine. In that case, one must disregard the fact that the border with Ukraine is the last place anyone would flee to, regardless of whether they are actually on their way there or not.
Ukraine’s border with Russia is probably the world’s most heavily guarded border right now and it is packed with military personnel. So why not make it easy: sneak over to the Belarusian border (which is far less protected) and then into Ukraine?
Had this been a false flag operation, the Russian authorities would have provided clear “evidence” and solid connections that those behind it were in contact with Ukraine. They struggle with that. The last thing they would have done is carry out the operation so that ISIS had any chance of taking “credit” for it.
5. Taken by surprise
Given Russia’s history of conflict with groups like ISIS, an attack by ISIS on Russian authorities is not beyond the realm of possibility. Russia’s past engagements in Syria and Afghanistan against ISIS provide a backdrop that makes such an event plausible, reducing the necessity for a false flag operation
There will be some kind of lid on the whole thing and the reason is because this was a terrorist operation and Russia was taken by surprise.